(PLO)- A stable macroeconomic foundation supports Vietnam’s stock market with many potential investment opportunities in various fields.
Video: At the end of the year, which stocks to invest in for profit?
Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute, said that in 2022, two-thirds of the way has been completed, so far most of the socio-economic indicators according to Resolution 32 of the National Assembly have been achieved. positive results, the most prominent of which is economic growth.
If in the first half of 2022, Vietnam’s GDP reaches 7.7%, it is forecasted that the third quarter will grow 9%. Therefore, in 2022, Vietnam’s GDP could reach over 7%.
The stock market in the last months of the year still has many unknowns. Photo: M.PHUONG
The prospect of banking stocks is highly appreciated by analysts.
The possibility of returning to the 1,400 point mark
“The issue that needs attention right now is inflation, but Vietnam has a lot of experience in controlling inflation. As in 2008, the price of oil rose to 140 USD/barrel, at that time Vietnam’s inflation was over 20%. This year, oil prices have increased similarly, but inflation remains low. This is because the Government has quickly reduced taxes and fees and stabilized the exchange rate,” said Ngan.
In the same comment, analysts of SSI Securities Company assessed that in contrast to concerns about the possibility of an economic recession in the world, the domestic macro information continued to show bright colors. Better-than-expected August economic data makes the 7% GDP growth target in 2022 easily achievable. Besides, the inflation target is still under control. Manufacturing activities will continue to be supported by the traditional export sector while domestic consumption maintains a positive momentum.
With the global crude oil price still not clearly showing a downward trend, companies involved in this industry are still attractive because of the high profit growth.
According to Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Analysis Director of VPS Securities Company, the global economic context is difficult, but Vietnam’s economic growth this year is quite positive. In the last period, the market made a bottom in July and is recovering again. Cash flow started to be more confident in disbursement. Basic stocks and blue-chips have also prospered.
“I think the market is in a growth trend and is likely to return to the 1,400-point mark by the end of 2022,” Khanh said.
Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan, a senior lecturer at the University of Bristol (UK), assessed that the stock market often moves according to the economic cycle. When the business cycle reaches a certain point, inflation is created. When inflation is too high, it leads to many macroeconomic instability for countries. At that time, central banks were forced to raise interest rates and withdraw money, directly affecting the cash flow that can be poured into the stock market.
Analysts are also comparing the current period to the oil shock cycle that led to high inflation in the 1970s that sent global stock markets down 48%. If comparing this period with that period, the US stock market fell about 30% and the Vietnamese stock market also dropped a lot.
However, there is a difference that this cycle has proactive policies and a clear roadmap, so this shock is milder for the economy. I expect the most difficult period of the economy is over with the central bank no longer tightening monetary policy. At the same time, it creates capital for the stock market to operate smoothly,” said Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan.
Securities company Agriseco Research reported that in the second quarter, the economy recovered strongly in many fields with GDP reaching 7.7% over the same period. This is the highest level in more than 10 years since 2011 thanks to the growth of the industrial sector and the recovery of tourism. The Government’s economic growth target of 6%-6.5% this year is feasible, unless a major event occurs.
Although recently large organizations have continuously lowered their global economic growth forecasts, they still maintain a positive view on Vietnam’s economic growth prospects. Vietnam is in the group of developing economies with the most positive growth prospects. Since then, the stock market has plenty of room for further development in the future.
Observe the market closely
The market continued to observe the State Bank’s allocation of the remaining credit growth limit to banks. Along with that is the exchange rate movements as well as the State Bank’s management measures in the context that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue its drastic interest rate hike in September. We also does not exclude the possibility that the US stock market’s negative movements will put downward pressure on the Vietnamese market.
The trend of the market index in September will depend on the result of retesting the resistance area of 1,285 points on the VN Index. If conquering and stabilizing above 1,285 points, the index will extend the recovering momentum to 1,300-1,310 points. On the contrary, if the index corrects from 1,285 points, we see that 1,220 points is a good support for the index.
SSI . Securities Company
Money down potential industries
Ngo The Hien, director of analysis of Saigon – Hanoi Securities Company, said that in the remaining time of 2022, many businesses are assessed as still having potential as industries related to public investment. The year-end period is usually the peak period to accelerate the disbursement of public investment.
Along with this policy, some enterprises in the field of building materials, including the steel industry, will be able to benefit. Banking is also a positive industry. Banks are expected to loosen the credit room in the coming period, and will accelerate the implementation of the 2% interest rate support package. Besides, some other industries such as seaports and logistics can still benefit from very active import and export activities.
Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist of VinaCapital Group, said that investors’ strategy should now focus on stocks and sectors benefiting from Vietnam’s economic recovery, including consumer goods. non-essential, financial and real estate.
In addition, as the long-term growth drivers of the Vietnamese economy remain intact despite the epidemic, stocks and sectors benefit from FDI inflows, infrastructure development, energy Clean and digitized should also be included in the portfolio.
From another perspective, Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, investment consultant director of Maybank Investment Bank, said that finding potential industries for investment is also a difficult task. For example, steel stocks have grown very strongly but then fell sharply and are now quite far from the peak. The technology, transportation and consumer goods industries are still considered to have good profits in this volatile period, so investors disbursing money in part here is also a reasonable strategy.
According to experts, with the global crude oil price still not showing a clear downward trend, companies related to this industry are still very attractive because of the high profit growth. In addition, stocks in the field of production and export of agricultural products or chemicals, fertilizers, and rubber are also quite potential as the market’s demand is still very high.•
The stock market has almost bottomed
Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan (photo) assessed that investment funds are holding the highest amount of cash in the past 15 years. That means a huge amount of money is ready to be invested in the market. Most people think that the stock market is very close to the bottom. Due to the large amount of cash and enough resilience in the macro area to overcome the worst period, more optimistic factors will appear. By that time, the stock market will thrive again. At the same time, when the credit cash flow goes through the tightening period, the stock will surely increase.
In the period from now to the end of 2022, investors should allocate capital to stocks that can pay good dividends or have reasonable valuations. In addition, it is also possible to consider disbursing into stocks related to fields such as digital transformation, software supply, software export or stocks of essential consumer goods because of stable profits. .